Validating a prognostic model Sites dating women xxx large
It had similar performance with the IDC model, which, however, produced more consistent survival results across the development and validation cohorts.The predictive ability of both models was lower than that suggested by internal validation (our model) or recent published data (IDC model), due to differences between observed and predicted survival among intermediate and poor-risk patients.Criteria for inclusion in this analysis included diagnosis of m RCC and treatment with sunitinib.Previous IFNa but not anti-VEGF therapy was allowed.Concordance (C) index for internal validation was 0.712, whereas C-index for external validation was 0.634, due to differences in survival especially in poor-risk populations between the two cohorts.Predictive performance of the model was improved after recalibration.Risk stratification according to IDC model showed more similar outcomes across the development and validation cohorts compared with our model.Our model provides a simple prognostic tool in m RCC patients treated with a targeted agent.
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Baseline demographic, clinical and laboratory data with prognostic significance according to published reports and the authors’ experience were retrospectively collected from medical charts using uniform database templates to ensure consistent data collection.
Overall survival data was available for all patients.
The development cohort included 170 m RCC patients treated with sunitinib.
The final prognostic model was selected by uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses.
The covariance decomposition of the probability score and its use in evaluating prognostic estimates: SUPPORT Investigators. 1995;15120- 131Google Scholar Crossref Murphy AH What is a good forecast? CO;2" class="crossref-doi" target="_blank" xmlns:helper="urn: Xslt String Helper"Epstein ES Long-range weather prediction: limits of predictablity and beyond.